PESTLE RETRO 2026 - Political Factors
One Year Later: Tariffs & the Impact to Business Margins
Halfway through the year is a great time to check in on your business. Beyond looking at your sales numbers, it helps to step back and look at the bigger picture outside your business too. That's where PESTLE Retro comes in. PESTLE stands for six outside forces that shape your business: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. For each one, ask three simple questions: What helped my business? What hurt it? And what should I change going forward? This isn't about predicting the future perfectly. It's about pausing long enough to notice what's actually happening around your business, so your next moves are based on real patterns instead of guesswork.
Key Takeaways:
Tariffs raise costs.
Large Businesses are insulated (stockpiling, lobbying, advance purchasing) while small businesses are not.
The playbook: stay informed, forecast need, plan your supply chain, seek lower-cost alternatives and join associations that advocate on behalf on business sectors. Collective advocacy matters for businesses too small to lobby alone.
Tariffs are the taxes the federal government charge to goods brought in from other countries. The taxes are paid by the individual or business entity who takes receipt of the goods. If you sell physician products or buy supplies, equipment or materials from overseas, tariffs can raise your costs. Large companies often ride out tariff changes more easily by buying in bulk ahead of time and stockpiling inventory, using the services of industry lobbyists to advocate on their behalf to the government for them or researching alternative options in their country of origin that are cheaper. Many smaller businesses do not have that luxury. If you are a small business owner – there is still good news. Stay informed about tariff news and be proactive about planning and identifying alternatives to sourcing your supply and inventory. Join a small business association that advocates on your behalf is a smart move as there are strength in numbers.
2025 Prediction:
Tariffs would keep pressuring companies' Cost of Goods Sold and profit margins.
Join Advocacy associations, collection action matters.
2026 Update:
By June 2026, many figures cite the latest mean tariff rate as 7.1 percent, a result of the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 ruling that the IEEPA levies lacked constitutional grounding (1).
Coalition litigation produced the year' s biggest small business win’ recovering money now requires individual actions Refund exposure estimated to $165-175B; refunds are not automatic as imparters must file via CBPs new CAPE portal, with a 180 day protest window on liquidated entries. These payouts follow the Supreme Court decision (2) striking down the IEEPA-based levies for lacking a legal foundation.
But businesses are not done dealing with new tariffs yet. The Trump administration quickly imposed replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled against the original levies in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump.